Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 101518.377649 106959.364948 112393.919771 118225.787028 124303.190485 130446.138185 137120.984756
2025-10-12 93495.292406 101889.341992 110500.640622 119984.303403 130124.459649 140630.538351 152327.487016
2025-10-19 87261.632685 97673.442022 108582.003472 120841.034357 134211.146920 148327.900784 164336.958700
2025-10-26 81991.143757 93871.399775 106540.854540 121020.965238 137074.665803 154289.771446 174107.747426
2025-11-02 77872.998437 90939.740093 105091.589279 121504.186009 139959.183906 160013.525727 183396.466390
2025-11-09 74056.455481 88057.313754 103435.164553 121506.455541 142085.547668 164714.072358 191398.711422
2025-11-16 71483.908996 86395.957519 102983.032736 122707.109987 145423.274616 170664.930297 200729.786023
2025-11-23 68422.165123 83997.012572 101531.732886 122618.069323 147163.529725 174708.115936 207824.171160
2025-11-30 66680.500516 83027.493621 101633.718261 124236.012473 150798.930292 180871.053926 217327.810047
2025-12-07 64784.897893 81773.689846 101314.012342 125281.221288 153705.366007 186153.852706 225801.231561
2025-12-14 62482.281754 79930.841381 100207.202650 125312.702141 155351.119401 189920.370633 232480.073946
2025-12-21 60497.333987 78387.524416 99381.426907 125608.704294 157252.351415 193946.654603 239444.605998
2025-12-28 59490.022952 78015.519988 99955.499084 127594.732263 161202.295470 200449.854487 249434.655113
2026-01-04 58342.554334 77423.113292 100225.335783 129186.842000 164670.457147 206394.165795 258802.537764
2026-01-11 56896.935113 76401.447584 99920.305828 130035.036638 167208.857310 211215.919457 266839.086482
2026-01-18 55210.112112 75015.087731 99110.474332 130212.425222 168890.116727 214982.972639 273601.640675
2026-01-25 53781.583272 73906.207176 98601.033684 130722.465449 170950.495055 219194.490183 280906.888245
2026-02-01 52193.433334 72539.551248 97720.145733 130724.207586 172347.027392 222575.728265 287195.996298
2026-02-08 51274.961275 72007.217649 97867.201676 131998.746434 175317.892477 227890.307846 295877.723572
2026-02-15 49789.127435 70686.149864 96965.809282 131904.187489 176541.241136 231031.805137 301879.025115
2026-02-22 49173.378975 70489.813122 97491.879142 133621.685913 180050.095579 237020.133455 311440.176079
2026-03-01 48327.140655 69957.897935 97559.537686 134731.083781 182778.133009 242039.542913 319817.778618
2026-03-08 47065.701442 68831.910097 96819.314874 134764.496106 184109.572156 245297.846481 325995.739922